تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش جغرافیایی گونه داروئی آویشن کوهی (Boiss and Hohen)Thymus kotschyanus با بهره‌گیری از مدل‌سازی ترکیبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم مرتع، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

2 استاد، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

3 دانشیار، دانشکده جنگلداری، منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، ایران.

4 استادیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران.

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر با هدف پیش­‌بینی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش جغرافیایی گونه داروئی آویشن کوهی (Thymus kotschyanus Boiss and Hohen) در استان مازندران انجام شد. اطلاعات مربوط به داده­‌های نقاط مشاهده گونه توسط سامانۀ موقعیت­‌یاب جهانی ثبت شد. پراکنش گونه آویشن کوهی در شرایط حال حاضر و آینده 2050 و 2070 میلادی (1428- 1448 شمسی) تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر اساس دو سناریوی RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 با سری داده مدل‌­های گردش عمومی BCC-CSM1-1،CCSM4  و MRI-CGCM3 و با استفاده از پنج مدل پراکنش گونه­‌ای شامل مدل خطی تعمیم‌­­یافته، مدل جمعی تعمیم­‌یافته، تحلیل طبقه­‌بندی درختی، مدل رگرسیون تقویت ­­شده و روش جنگل تصادفی بررسی شد. برای این منظور لایه­‌های عوامل محیطی شامل شش متغیر زیست-اقلیمی و دو متغیر فیزیوگرافی به عنوان ورودی مدل­‌های پراکنش گونه‌­ای به ­کار رفت. از بین متغیر­های محیطی به ترتیب تغییر فصلی بارندگی، مجموع بارندگی سردترین فصل سال و شاخص هم‌­دمایی بیشترین تأثیر را در مطلوبیت رویشگاه گونه داشت. ارزیابی مدل­‌های اجرا شده، نشان داد که مدل جمعی تعمیم­‌یافته و رگرسیون تقویت­‌شده نسبت به دیگر مدل‌­ها، پیش­‌بینی قابل اعتماد­تری برای تعیین رویشگاه اقلیمی دارد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییر اقلیم محدوده پراکنش گونه را تغییر داده و به سمت ارتفاعات بالاتر در آینده جابجا خواهد کرد. نتایج پژوهش حاضر می­‌تواند برای برنامه­‌ریزی برای حفاظت از رویشگاه گونه داروئی آویشن کوهی و همچنین احیاء و بازسازی آن در بخش وسیعی از کشور به کار رود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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