Desert Management

Desert Management

Projection of the Relationship between Climate Change Groundwater Resources Based on the MODFLOW Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Fatemeh Boomeh 1
Mohammad Hosein Mokhtari 2
Ali Talebi 3
Massoud Goodarzi 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Combating Desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources and Eremology, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Department of Arid Lands and Desert Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Eremology, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
3 Professor of Department of Rangeland and Watershed, Faculty of Natural Resources and Eremology, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of drought and climate change, SCWMRI, AREEO, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/jdmal.2024.2040564.1480
Abstract
Climate change, a phenomenon that has been occurring since ancient times, has accelerated in recent years. This study investigates the impact of climate change on groundwater resources using the MODFLOW model. To achieve this, the water balance was first calculated, and then temperature and precipitation data for the near future (2031–2050), mid-term (2051–2070), and long-term (2071–2090) periods were estimated using global climate data. These estimated temperature and precipitation values were input into the MODFLOW 2005 model. The results showed that, under two climate change scenarios—shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5—the monthly averages of both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase across all months of the year. In the optimistic scenario (SSP2-4.5), precipitation and aquifer recharge are projected to remain at current levels on average; however, groundwater levels are anticipated to decline by approximately 22 meters by 2089, with annual and seasonal fluctuations persisting in the long term. In contrast, the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5) predicts a significant reduction in both precipitation and aquifer recharge, leading to a more pronounced decrease in groundwater levels. In this scenario, groundwater levels are expected to drop by about 30 cm per year in the long term, largely due to changes in precipitation patterns and aquifer recharge rates.

Highlights

  1. Abbaszadeh, M., Bazrafshan, O., Mahdavi, R., Sardooi, E. R., & Jamshidi, S. (2023). Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model. Water Resources Management, (37)10, 4177-4194. DOI: 1007/s11269-023-03545-6
  2. Abbasnouvinpour, E., Karimi, F. and Rezaie, H. (2022). The Prediction of Groundwater Level in Ghorve Plain Using MODFLOW Model in Different Scenarios of LARS-WG Climate Change. Water and Soil Science, 32(4), 61-73. [In Persian]
  3. An, N.N., Nhut, H.S., Phuong, T.A., Huy, V.Q., Hanh, N.C., Thao, G.T.P., Trinh, P.T., Hoa, P.V. and Bình, N.A. (2022). Groundwater simulation in Dak Lak province based on MODFLOW model and climate change scenarios. Frontiers in Engineering and Built Environment, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 55-67. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/FEBE-11-2021-0055
  4. Askarizadeh, D., Arzani. H., Jaffari, M., Bazrafshan, , & Prentice, I.C. (2018). Surveying of the past, present and future of vegetation changes in the central Alborz ranges in relation to climate change. RS & GIS for Natural Resources, 9(3), 1-18. [In Persian]
  5. Clayton, S., & Karazsia, B. T. (2020). Development and validation of a measure of climate change anxiety. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 69, Article 101434. DOI: 1016/j.jenvp.2020.101434
  6. Dong, Y., Li, G. & Xu, H. (2012). An aerial recharge and discharge simulating method for MODFLOW. Computers & Geosciences. 42, 203-205. DOI: 1016/j.cageo.2011.10.005
  7. Goodarzi, M., & Mortazavizadeh, F. S. (2020). Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Fluctuations Using RCP Scenarios. Iranian journal of Eco hydrology, 7(3), 801- 814. [In Persian]
  8. HajiGhasemi, Sh., Zakeri Niri, M., & Najafi Jilani, A. (2021). Investigating of Climate Change Effects on the Surface Runoff with SWAT Model (Case study: Mazlaghan River). Iranian journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 15(1), 121-137. [In Persian]
  9. Jallili, Kh., Moradi, H.R., & Bozorg haddad, O. (2016). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Islam Abad Aquifer and Land Allocation Optimization. Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal, 5(11), 117-131. [In Persian].
  10. Khan, M.S.H., Haque, M.E., Ahmed, M., Mallick, J., Islam, A.R.M.T., & Fattah, A.M. (2024). Quantitative analysis and modeling of groundwater flow using visual MODFLOW: a case from subtropical coal mine, northwest Bangladesh. Environment Development Sustain, 26, 12971–12993. DOI: 1007/s10668-023-04052-9
  11. Liu, W., Bailey, R. T., Andersen, H. E., Jeppesen, E., Nielsen, A., Peng, K., Trolle, D. (2020). Quantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models. Science of The Total Environment, 745, 140933. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140933
  12. Patil, N. S., Chetan, N. L., Nataraja, M., & Suthar, S. (2020). Climate change scenarios and its effect on groundwater level in the Hiranyakeshi watershed. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 10, 100323. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2019.100323
  13. Razavi, S., davary, K., Shahedi, M., talebi, F., & Joodavi, A. (2019). An overview on water balance models: mathematical-conceptual water balance models for watershed. Iranian Water Researches Journal, 13(4), 125-136 [In Persian].
  14. Shahin Rakhsar, P., & Nazmi, A. (2021). Climate change and its impact on underground water resources. 11th national conference on sustainable agriculture and natural resources, Tehran. [In Persian].
  15. Sheikh Biklo Islam, B. (2018). The effects of extreme weather events related to climate change: From the past to the present, The 14th Congress of the Iranian Geographic. Tehran, Iran. [In Persian].
  16. Sheikha-BagemGhaleh, S., Babazadeh, H., Rezaie, H. & Saraee-Tabrizi, M. (2023). The effect of climate change on surface and groundwater resources using WEAP-MODFLOW models. Applied Water Science.13, 121. DOI: 1007/s13201-023-01923-4.
  17. Shrestha, S., Bach, T.V., & Pandey, V.P. (2016). Climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Mekong Delta under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Sci. Policy. 61, 1-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.010
  18. Soleymani Motlagh, M. S., Ghasemieh, H., Talebi, A., & Abdollahi, K. (2017). Identification and analysis of drought propagation of groundwater during past and future periods. Water Resources Management, 31(1), 109-125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1513-5 ‏
  19. Taylor, M. (2013). Climate change, relational vulnerability and human security: rethinking sustainable adaptation in agrarian environments. Climate and Development, 5(4), 318-327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.­1080/17565529.2013.830954
  20. Zhang, L., Li, X., Han, J., Lin, J., Dai, Y. & Liu, P. (2024). Identification of surface water - groundwater nitrate governing factors in Jianghuai hilly area based on coupled SWAT-MODFLOW-RT3D modeling approach. Science of The Total Environment. 912: 168830. DOI: 1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168830

Keywords
Climate change
MODFLOW
Groundwater
Kor River

Subjects

  1. Abbaszadeh, M., Bazrafshan, O., Mahdavi, R., Sardooi, E. R., & Jamshidi, S. (2023). Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model. Water Resources Management, (37)10, 4177-4194. DOI: 1007/s11269-023-03545-6
  2. Abbasnouvinpour, E., Karimi, F. and Rezaie, H. (2022). The Prediction of Groundwater Level in Ghorve Plain Using MODFLOW Model in Different Scenarios of LARS-WG Climate Change. Water and Soil Science, 32(4), 61-73. [In Persian]
  3. An, N.N., Nhut, H.S., Phuong, T.A., Huy, V.Q., Hanh, N.C., Thao, G.T.P., Trinh, P.T., Hoa, P.V. and Bình, N.A. (2022). Groundwater simulation in Dak Lak province based on MODFLOW model and climate change scenarios. Frontiers in Engineering and Built Environment, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 55-67. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/FEBE-11-2021-0055
  4. Askarizadeh, D., Arzani. H., Jaffari, M., Bazrafshan, , & Prentice, I.C. (2018). Surveying of the past, present and future of vegetation changes in the central Alborz ranges in relation to climate change. RS & GIS for Natural Resources, 9(3), 1-18. [In Persian]
  5. Clayton, S., & Karazsia, B. T. (2020). Development and validation of a measure of climate change anxiety. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 69, Article 101434. DOI: 1016/j.jenvp.2020.101434
  6. Dong, Y., Li, G. & Xu, H. (2012). An aerial recharge and discharge simulating method for MODFLOW. Computers & Geosciences. 42, 203-205. DOI: 1016/j.cageo.2011.10.005
  7. Goodarzi, M., & Mortazavizadeh, F. S. (2020). Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Fluctuations Using RCP Scenarios. Iranian journal of Eco hydrology, 7(3), 801- 814. [In Persian]
  8. HajiGhasemi, Sh., Zakeri Niri, M., & Najafi Jilani, A. (2021). Investigating of Climate Change Effects on the Surface Runoff with SWAT Model (Case study: Mazlaghan River). Iranian journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 15(1), 121-137. [In Persian]
  9. Jallili, Kh., Moradi, H.R., & Bozorg haddad, O. (2016). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Islam Abad Aquifer and Land Allocation Optimization. Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal, 5(11), 117-131. [In Persian].
  10. Khan, M.S.H., Haque, M.E., Ahmed, M., Mallick, J., Islam, A.R.M.T., & Fattah, A.M. (2024). Quantitative analysis and modeling of groundwater flow using visual MODFLOW: a case from subtropical coal mine, northwest Bangladesh. Environment Development Sustain, 26, 12971–12993. DOI: 1007/s10668-023-04052-9
  11. Liu, W., Bailey, R. T., Andersen, H. E., Jeppesen, E., Nielsen, A., Peng, K., Trolle, D. (2020). Quantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models. Science of The Total Environment, 745, 140933. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140933
  12. Patil, N. S., Chetan, N. L., Nataraja, M., & Suthar, S. (2020). Climate change scenarios and its effect on groundwater level in the Hiranyakeshi watershed. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 10, 100323. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2019.100323
  13. Razavi, S., davary, K., Shahedi, M., talebi, F., & Joodavi, A. (2019). An overview on water balance models: mathematical-conceptual water balance models for watershed. Iranian Water Researches Journal, 13(4), 125-136 [In Persian].
  14. Shahin Rakhsar, P., & Nazmi, A. (2021). Climate change and its impact on underground water resources. 11th national conference on sustainable agriculture and natural resources, Tehran. [In Persian].
  15. Sheikh Biklo Islam, B. (2018). The effects of extreme weather events related to climate change: From the past to the present, The 14th Congress of the Iranian Geographic. Tehran, Iran. [In Persian].
  16. Sheikha-BagemGhaleh, S., Babazadeh, H., Rezaie, H. & Saraee-Tabrizi, M. (2023). The effect of climate change on surface and groundwater resources using WEAP-MODFLOW models. Applied Water Science.13, 121. DOI: 1007/s13201-023-01923-4.
  17. Shrestha, S., Bach, T.V., & Pandey, V.P. (2016). Climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Mekong Delta under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Sci. Policy. 61, 1-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.010
  18. Soleymani Motlagh, M. S., Ghasemieh, H., Talebi, A., & Abdollahi, K. (2017). Identification and analysis of drought propagation of groundwater during past and future periods. Water Resources Management, 31(1), 109-125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1513-5 ‏
  19. Taylor, M. (2013). Climate change, relational vulnerability and human security: rethinking sustainable adaptation in agrarian environments. Climate and Development, 5(4), 318-327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.­1080/17565529.2013.830954
  20. Zhang, L., Li, X., Han, J., Lin, J., Dai, Y. & Liu, P. (2024). Identification of surface water - groundwater nitrate governing factors in Jianghuai hilly area based on coupled SWAT-MODFLOW-RT3D modeling approach. Science of The Total Environment. 912: 168830. DOI: 1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168830
Desert Management
Volume 12, Issue 4 - Serial Number 32
6 Article
Winter 2025
Pages 1-20

  • Receive Date 07 September 2024
  • Revise Date 30 November 2024
  • Accept Date 09 December 2024