Spatial Distribution of Changes in the Trend of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Iran and Its Relationship with The General Circulation of the Atmosphere in the Region

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Climatology, Urmia University, Faculty of Literature & Humanities, Department of Geography, Urmia, Iran.

2 Associate Professor of Climatology, Urmia University, Faculty of Literature & Humanities, Department of Geography, Urmia, Iran.

Abstract

Introduction
Extreme precipitation has a significant impact on the frequency, severity, and duration of natural hazards, such as floods, droughts, and landslides. This has a significant impact on human life, the economy, natural ecosystems, and agriculture (Song et al, 2015: 34). Between 1880 and 2012, there was a 0.85 °C increase in the average global temperature, with a general increase in precipitation in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC, 2013: 2; Lio et al, 2017: 822). In addition, there is a possibility of a rise in extreme precipitation in the future (Klein Tank et al, 2006: 1), and so far, the reason for these changes and their relationship with the general circulation of the atmosphere have not been considered. The aim of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in extreme precipitation indices in northwestern Iran and its association with the general circulation of the atmosphere.
 
Material and Methods
In order to analyze the changes in extreme precipitation events in northwestern Iran, daily precipitation data was collected from 20 synoptic stations in the region between 1986 and 2010. The region that is being studied encompasses West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, and Kurdistan. In assessing limit events, high quality and reliable long-term climate data with daily (or higher) resolution is required (Clintanak et al., 2009: 9). The first step was to examine the quality control and homogeneity of data. The RClimDex software package, introduced as a standard tool by ETCCDI, was used to perform quality control and evaluate data homogeneity in this research. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) introduced 11 indexes to examine changes in precipitation level indices in northwest Iran. RClimDex software calculates these indicators with a significance level of 0.05. This process seeks to establish a standard set of indicators to examine and compare the characteristics of


 
different regions. The software was used to calculate precipitation indices and display the trend and rate of change on a map.
 
Results and Discussion
The extreme precipitation indices were calculated to determine the regional trend and percentage of stations with positive and negative trends for the studied stations in northwestern Iran. Afterward, a map was created showing the spatial distribution of the slope for each of the indices. All precipitation indexes, except for the maximum growth period index (CDD), are declining according to the results. The probability of precipitation has decreased due to the more stable winter atmosphere in the region from the point of view of general atmospheric circulation. The region's spring atmosphere, similar to that of winter, shows an increase in stability, which will result in less rainfall. In summer, except for the coastal provinces of the Caspian Sea and the coasts of the Oman Sea, the rest of the country has recorded a decrease in rainfall of 1 mm per day. Most parts of the country experienced an increase in atmosphere thickness to 6 meters in autumn in the study area. Autumn in the region is typically stable and barotropic, but the study area is experiencing less rainfall. This study examines the trend of changes in extreme precipitation indices in northwestern Iran and its relation to a large-scale general circulation of the atmosphere. According to the results, 75% of stations in the region are experiencing a decrease in the maximum daily rainfall (RX1day) and 80% are experiencing a decrease in the maximum five-day rainfall (RX5day). While both the very wet (R95P) and ultra-wet (R99P) day indices are experiencing a downward trend, the R95P index is experiencing a more pronounced downward trend. All three indices R10, R20, and R25 have been declining for the past 25 years, but the R10 index has fallen more rapidly than the other two indices. Sarab station has a positive CWD trend alone, while other stations have a negative and decreasing trend of this index. In most stations throughout the region, the CDD index is increasing. In 85% of stations in the region, the PRCPTOT index is decreasing and there is a noticeable increase in rainfall. The SDII index is experiencing a decrease in 60% of the stations in northwestern Iran, while an increase is being observed in 40%. All precipitation indices, except for the CDD index, have a decreasing trend in general. Drawing and analyzing combined difference maps for geopotential height parameters of 500 hPa, relative rotation of 500 hPa, vertical velocity (omega), rainwater and precipitation rate to study the general atmospheric circulation of the region indicates an increase in altitude has led to a 500 hPa increase in climate stability in the study area (northwest of Iran). The study of omega and relative rotation shows that the region is experiencing a decrease in upward currents and positive rotation. The lack of atmospheric moisture load and rainfall in all seasons can be seen in rainfall water difference maps and rates. Precipitation indices and the general circulation model of the region's atmosphere are compared, indicating that the moisture load of the region's atmosphere has decreased, resulting in drought.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. Ahmadi, M., Lashkari, H., Azadi, M., & Keikhosravi, G. (2015). Detection of climate change with extreme precipitation indices in great Khorasan. Researches in Earth Sciences, 6(23), 34-52. [In Persian]
  2. Bennett, K. E., & Walsh, J. E. (2015). Spatial and temporal changes in indices of extreme precipitation and temperature for Alaska. International Journal of Climatology, 35(7), 1434-1452. DOI: org/10.1002/joc.4067
  3. Darand, M. (2015). Assessment and detection of climate change in Iran during recent decades. Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering, 9(30), 1-14. [In Persian]
  4. Data, C. (2009). Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. World Meteorological Organization.
  5. Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P. M., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Tank, A. K., & Peterson, T. (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate research, 19(3), 193-212. DOI: org/10.3354/cr019193
  6. Gobin, A., Tarquis, A. M., & Dalezios, N. R. (2013). Weather-related hazards and risks in agriculture. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 13(10), 2599–2603. DOI: http://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2599-2013
  7. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
  8. Javan, K., Movaghari, A., & Park, J. S. (2023). Projected changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Lake Urmia basin in Iran. Water and Climate Change, 14(8), 2564-2582. DOI: org/10.2166/wcc.2023.447
  9. khodaei Geshlag, F., roostaei, S., & mokhtari, D. (2020). Monitoring the desertification trend in the areas surrounding Lake Urmia (2000-2018). Geography and Environmental Planning, 31(3), 21-40. DOI: 22108/GEP.2020.121458.1264
  10. Klein Tank, A. M., Peterson, T. C., Quadir, D. A., Dorji, S., Zou, X., Tang, H., ... & Spektorman, T. (2006). Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia.  Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D16). DOI: org/10.1029/2005JD006316
  11. Kouzegaran, s, Mousavi Bayg, M. (2015). Investigation of meteorological extreme events in the north-east of Iran. Journal of Water and Soil, 29(3), 750-764. DOI: 22067/JSW.V0I0.40845 [In Persian]
  12. Krichak, S. O., Breitgand, J. S., Gualdi, S., & Feldstein, S. B. (2014). Teleconnection–extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region. Theoretical and applied climatology, 117(3-4), 679-692. DOI: org/10.1007/s00704-013-1036-4
  13. Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U., & Kwon, H. H. (2009). Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. Climate, 22(18), 4737-4746. DOI: org/10.1175/2009JCLI2896.1
  14. Liu, J., Du, H., Wu, Z., He, H. S., Wang, L., & Zong, S. (2017). Recent and future changes in the combination of annual temperature and precipitation throughout China. International Journal of Climatology, 37(2), 821-833. DOI: org/10.1002/joc.4742
  15. Mailhot, A., Duchesne, S., Caya, D., & Talbot, G. (2007). Assessment of future change in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). Journal of Hydrology, 347(1), 197-210. DOI: org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.019
  16. Marofi, S., Sohrabi, M. M., Mohammadi, K., Sabziparvar, A. A., & Abyaneh, H. Z. (2011). Investigation of meteorological extreme events over coastal regions of Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 103, 401-412. DOI: org/10.1007/s00704-010-0298-3
  17. Merino, A., Fernández‐Vaquero, M., López, L., Fernández‐González, S., Hermida, L., Sánchez, J.L., García‐Ortega, E. & Gascón, E. (2016). Large‐scale patterns of daily precipitation extremes on the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 36(11), 3873-3891. DOI: org/10.1002/joc.4601
  18. Mohammadi, H., Azizi, G., khoshahklagh, F., & Ranjbar, F. (2017). Analysis of daily precipitation extreme indices trend in Iran. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 49(1), 21-37. DOI: 22059/JPHGR.2017.61577 [In Persian]
  19. Molanejad, M., Soltani, M., & Ranjbar, A. (2014). Changes in precipitation extremes in climate variability over northwest Iran. International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research, 2(10), 334-345. DOI: org/10.15739/IJAPR.005
  20. Rahimzadeh, F., Asgari, A., & Fattahi, E. (2009). Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology, 29(3), 329-343. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1739
  21. Rezai Banafsheh, Majid, Najafi, Mohammad Saeed, Naghizadeh, Habibeh, & Abkharabat, Shoaib. (2015). The Study of relationship between variability of extreme precipitation and the main factors affecting the precipitation in the west and north west of Iran. Geography and Environmental Hazards, 4(13), 133-153. DOI: 22067/GEO.V4I1.37833 [In Persian]
  22. Saadi, Tofigh, Alijani, Bohloul, Massah Bavani, Alireza, & Akbari, Mehri. (2016). Detection of extreme precipitation changes and attribution to climate change using standard optimal fingerprinting (Case Study: The Southwest of Iran). Journal Of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards, 3(3), 65-80. DOI: 18869/acadpub.jsaeh.3.3.65 [In Persian]
  23. Soltani, M., Laux, P., Kunstmann, H., Stan, K., Sohrabi, M.M., Molanejad, M., Sabziparvar, A.A., Ranjbar SaadatAbadi, A., Ranjbar, F., Rousta, I. and Zawar-Reza, P. (2016). Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 126(3-4), 775-795. DOI: org/10.1007/s00704-015-1609-5
  24. Song, X., Song, S., Sun, W., Mu, X., Wang, S., Li, J., & Li, Y. (2015). Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013. Atmospheric Research, 157, 137-152. DOI: org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.01.022
  25. Sun, W., Mu, X., Song, X., Wu, D., Cheng, A., & Qiu, B. (2016). Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960–2013 under global warming. Atmospheric Research, 168, 33-48. DOI: org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.001
  26. Tabari, H., & Willems, P. (2016). Daily precipitation extremes in Iran: decadal anomalies and possible drivers. the American Water Resources Association, 52(2), 541-559. DOI: org/10.1111/1752-1688.12403
  27. Tabari, H., AghaKouchak, A., & Willems, P. (2014). A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran. Hydrology, 519, 1420-1427. DOI: org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.019
  28. Tank, A. K., Wijngaard, J., & van Engelen, A. (2002). Climate of europe. assessment of observed daily temperature and precipitation extremes. european climate assessment. De Bilt, The Netherlands. ISBN 90-396-2208-9.
  29. Tingley, M. P., & Huybers, P. (2013). Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years. Nature, 496(7444), 201-205. DOI: org/10.1038/nature11969
  30. Wang, X., Yang, T., Shao, Q., Acharya, K., Wang, W., & Yu, Z. (2012). Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 26(3), 405-418. DOI: org/10.1007/s00477-011-0535-z
  31. Warner, M. D., Mass, C. F., & Salathe Jr, E. P. (2012). Wintertime extreme precipitation events along the Pacific Northwest coast: Climatology and synoptic evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 140(7), 2021-2043. DOI: org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00197.1
  32. Wei, W., Shi, Z., Yang, X., Wei, Z., Liu, Y., Zhang, Z., Ge, G., Zhang, X., Guo, H., Zhang, K. & Wang, B. (2017). Recent trends of extreme precipitation and their teleconnection with atmospheric circulation in the Beijing-Tianjin sand source region, China, 1960–2014. Atmosphere, 8(5), 83. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8050083
  33. Zhang, X., E. Aguilar, S. Sensoy, H. Melkonyan, U. Tagiyeva, N. Ahmed, N. Kutaladze, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Taghipour, T.H. Hantosh, P. Albert, M. Semawi, M. Karam Ali, M. Halal Said Al-Shabibi, Z. AlOulan, Taha Zatari, I. Al Dean Khelet, S. Hammoud, M. Demircan, M. Eken, M. Adiguzel, L. Alexander, T. Peterson & Wallis, T. (2005). Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D22). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181
  34. Zhao, Y., Zou, X., Cao, L., & Xu, X. (2014). Changes in precipitation extremes over the Pearl River Basin, southern China, during 1960–2012. Quaternary International, 333, 26-39. DOI: org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.03.060
  35. Zhou, B., Xu, Y., Wu, J., Dong, S., & Shi, Y. (2016). Changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices over China: analysis of a high‐resolution grid dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 36(3), 1051-1066. DOI: org/10.1002/joc.4400
  36. Zollo, A. L., Rillo, V., Bucchignani, E., Montesarchio, M., & Mercogliano, P. (2016). Extreme temperature and precipitation events over Italy: assessment of high‐resolution simulations with COSMO‐CLM and future scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 36(2), 987-1004. DOI: org/10.1002/joc.4401
  37. Zongxing, L., He, Y., Wang, P., Theakstone, W.H., An, W., Wang, X., Lu, A., Zhang, W. & Cao, W. (2012). Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961–2008. Global and Planetary Change, 80, 255-272. DOI: org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.06.008
  38. Zongxing, L., Juan, G., Baijuan, Z., & Qi, F. (2021). Soil water sources in permafrost active layer of Three-River Headwater Region, China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-59. DOI: org/10.5194/hess-2021-558
Desert Management
Volume 11, Issue 3 - Serial Number 27
6 Article
December 2023
Pages 37-56

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 23 July 2023
  • Revise Date: 20 October 2023
  • Accept Date: 27 October 2023

Share

How to cite

Statistics