Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Ph.D. Student, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2
Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3
Associate Professor, Research Group of Environmental Assessment and Risk, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran.
4
Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
5
. Associate Professor, Department of Regional Economics and the Environment, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, the University of Lodz, Poland.
Abstract
Climate change poses a critical challenge in arid and semi‑arid regions, primarily through its adverse effects on the hydrological cycle and water availability. This study investigates historical trends in temperature and precipitation, evaluates changes in annual Water Yield (WY), and projects future climate conditions in the Maharloo Wetland Basin, Fars Province, Iran. For the historical period (1991–2022), we employed ERA5‑Land and TerraClimate reanalysis datasets. Future climate projections (2021–2040) were derived from downscaled outputs of selected CMIP6 models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2‑4.5 and SSP5‑8.5. Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator revealed a significant warming trend (1 °C to 3 °C) across all temperature indices—both extreme and mean—over the past three decades. Nighttime and winter warming were dominant, leading to a noticeable reduction in diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Annual precipitation exhibited a declining trend, with the most pronounced decrease observed in the Gharb-e-Daryacheh sub-basin, which serves as the primary water supply zone for the wetland. In this sub‑basin, the reduction in annual WY was substantially greater than the decrease in precipitation, suggesting that changes in rainfall intensity and temporal distribution, along with increased evapotranspiration, have aggravated water loss. Satellite‑derived imagery further corroborated the progressive shrinkage of the wetland water body area. Future climate projections indicate continued warming, ranging from 1.1 °C to 1.5 °C, alongside a slight increase in annual precipitation (3 %–6 %). However, unlike the historical period, future warming is expected to be more pronounced during daytime and summer months. If the current trajectory persists, the wetland faces an elevated risk of complete desiccation, increased saline dust storms, and accelerated land degradation. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation strategies to mitigate impending environmental and socio‑economic impacts in the region.
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