Despite progress in understanding how land use and land cover change relate to land surface temperature, more regional studies are needed in arid and semi-arid areas. This study investigates the link between LULC changes and LST in Baft, Sirjan, and Bardsir counties in Kerman Province, Iran, from 2000 to 2025. LST was derived from Landsat images using the Mono- Window algorithm, with thermal zones classified into five categories via the Natural Breaks method. Additionally, CHIRPS rainfall data obtained through Google Earth Engine were used to analyze summer rainfall variability. Results showed that built-up areas expanded from 21,187ha in 2000 to 25,300 ha in 2025, while bare lands and rangelands declined. Zone 5, the hottest thermal zone, was dominant throughout, with maximum LST rising significantly from around 60°C in 2000 to 66°C in 2025. Bare land consistently exhibited the highest average LST, and built-up areas were warmer than natural covers like rangelands and orchards. LULC distribution in thermal zones revealed that bare lands contributed most to Zone 5, while orchards and agricultural lands mainly occupied Zones 2 to 4. Summer precipitation showed a slight but highly variable increasing trend; however, extreme rainfall events did not prevent the continued rise in LST. These results indicate that, under the region’s climate conditions, surface physical properties and land cover types have a greater impact than seasonal soil moisture, and increased summer rainfall cannot offset the warming caused by land conversion.