Spatio-Temporal Variability of Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Iran under Climate Change Scenarios

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 MSc of Watershed Management, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Agriculture, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran,

2 Associate Professor, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Agriculture, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Agriculture, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.

Abstract

Climate change affects severity and duration of drought, peak, magnitude, and frequency of the events in the coming decades. Iran is one of the countries that have suffered the most from drought. Therefore, drought monitoring and forecasting is crucial for drought mitigation and preparedness strategies in future. This study was conducted to evaluate the status of drought characteristics of severity, duration, magnitude, and peak in historical period from1966 to 2015 and future from 2016 to 2050  for 39 synoptic stations in Iran using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Also, for future simulation, the output of the general circulation model of CanESM2 based on two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the statistical downscaling method of SDSM were used. Results showed that the trend of severity, duration, magnitude, and peak  have no any significant trend. The SPI zoning map shows an increase in the historical period but will decrease in the future period under two scenarios. The results of the trend analysis of the severity, duration, and magnitude and peak drought showed that there is no significant trend in the historical and future in Iran. However, most of these characteristics are increasing in the northern, northeastern, western, and southern parts of Iran. Finally, the southern parts of Iran including Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces, the northeastern and western parts of Khorasan Razavi, Golestan, and Azerbaijan provinces will be most vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the risk of drought in these regions is high and it is necessary to seriously plan for the management of natural resources, and agriculture.

Keywords

References

  1. Abbas, A. S. & Abdulateef, T. M. (2020). Generation of rainfall for Mosul city using statistical downscaling method (SDSM). Materials and Engineering, 737(1), 1 -8.
  2. Aksoy, H., Onaz, B., Cetin, M., Yuce, M. I., Eris, E., Selek, B., Aksu, H., Burgan, H. I., Esit, M., Orta, S. & Cavus, Y. (2018). SPI –based drought Severity –Duration –Frequaency Analysis. Journal In Proceedings of the 13th Intrnational Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering, Izmir, Turkey, 12 -14.
  3. Alvankar, S. R., Nazari, F. & Fattahi, E., (2016). The Intensity and Return Periods of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Iran. Spatial analysis environmental hazarts, 3(2), 99 -120. (in Farsi)
  4. Bahri, M., Dastorani, M. T. & Goodarzi, M. (2015). Assessment of future drought under climate change status, case study: Eskandari basin, Isfahan Province. Watershed engineering management, 7(2), 157 -171. (in Farsi)
  5. Bazrafshan, O., Zamani, H. & Shekari, M. (2020). A copula –based index for drought analysis in arid and semi –arid regions of Iran. Natural Resource Modeling, 33(1), 17-32.
  6. Bazrafshan, O., Mahmudzadeh, F. & Bazrafshan, J. (2016). Evaluation of temporal trends of the drought indices SPI and SPEI in the Southern Coast of Iran. Desert management, 4(8), 54 -69. (in Farsi)
  7. Doulabian, Sh. Golian, S., Shadmehri Toosi, A. H. & Murphy, C. (2020). Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperatuature for Iran using RCP scenarios. Water and climate change, 12(1), 105-129.
  8. Fallah Ghalhari, Gh. A., Yousefi, H, Hosseinzadeh, A., Alimardani, M. R. & Reyhani, E. (2019). Assessment of Climate Change in Bojnourd Station in 2016 -2050 using Downscaling Model LARS WG and SDSM. Ecohydrology, 6(1), 99 -109. (in Farsi)
  9. Ghebrezgabher, M. G., Yang, T. & Yang, X. (2016). Long –Term Trend of Climate Change and Drought Assessment in the Horn of Africa. Advance in Meteorology, 10(4), 1-14.
  10. Jamshidi, H., Khalili, D., Rezaeian Zaddeh, M. & Hosseinipour, E. Z. (2011). Assessment and comparison of SPI and RDI meteorological drought indices selected synoptic stations of Iran. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress,1161 -1173.
  11. Kazemzadeh, M. & Akbari, J. (2020). Spatial resolution analysis of TRMM satellite images to estimate meteorological drought index, case study: Iran. Watershed Engineering and Management, 11(4), 903 -916. (in Farsi)
  12. Kousari, M. R., Ekhtesasi, M. R. & Malekinezhad, H. (2017). Investigation of long term drought trend in semi -arid, arid and hyper –arid regions of the world. Desert Management, 4(8), 36 -53. (in Farsi)
  13. Kwak, J., Kim, S., Jung, J., Singh, V.P., Lee, D.R. & Kim, H.S. (2016). Assessment of meteorological drought in Korea under climate change.  Advances in Meteorology, 9(4), 1-15.
  14. Leng, G., Tang, Q. & Rayburg, S. (2015). Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China. Global and Planetary Change, 126 (4), 23 -34.
  15. Marcos –Garcia, P., Lopez –Nicolas, A. & Pulido –Velazquez, M. (2017). Combined use of relative drought indices to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts in a Mediterranean basin. Hydrology, 554(11), 292 -305.
  16. Marini, G., Fontana, N. & Mishra, A. (2018). Investigating drought in Apulia region, Italy using SPI and RDI. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(1-2), 383 -397.
  17. Naderi, S., Goodarzi, M. & Ghadami Dehno, M. (2018). Effects of Climate Change on Climate Parameters in Seymare Basin. Watershed Management Science and Engineering, 11(39), 69 -76. (in Farsi)
  18. Naz, F., Dars, G. H., Ansari, K., Jamro, Sh. & Krakaure, N. Y. (2020). Drought trends in Balochistan. Water, 12(2), 1 -16.
  19. Node Farahani, M. A., Rasekhi, A., Parmas, B. & Keshvari, A. (2018). The effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation and drought in upcoming period in shadegan basin. Iran –Water Resources Research, 14(3), 160 -173. (in Farsi)
  20. Samantaray, A. K., Ramadas, M. & Panda, R. K., (2020). Assessment of Impacts of potential climate change on meteorological drought characteristics at regional scales. Climatology,  41(3), 319-341.
  21. Sharafati, A., Nabaei, S. & Shahid, S. (2020). Spatial assessment of meteorological drought features over different climate regions in Iran. Climatology, 40(3), 1864 -1884.
  22. Sharma, A. & Goyal, M. K. (2020). Assessment of drought trend and variability in India using wavelet transform. Hydrological Sciences, 65(9), 1 -16.
  23. Yao, N., Li, L., Feng, P., Feng, H., Liu, D. L., Liu, Y., Jiang, K., Hu, X. & Li, Y. (2019). Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs. Science of the Total Environment, 704(2),  2 -53.
  24. Zarei, A., Asadi, E., Ebrahimi, A., Jafari, M. & Malekian, A. (2019). Study of temperature and precipitation change under climate change scenarios in rangeland of Chahar Mahal-va-Bakhtiyari. Rangeland, 12(4), 426-436. (in Farsi)
Desert Management
Volume 8, Issue 16 - Serial Number 16
12 Articles
March 2021
Pages 153-163

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 26 November 2020
  • Revise Date: 24 February 2021
  • Accept Date: 25 February 2021

Share

How to cite

Statistics